Donald Trump has reached the dead end in the Iran war that I have repeatedly and promptly warned about. He, like the vast majority of Western politicians, has ignored the mentality and main strategy of all Islamists – the provocation of Israel and the USA. This way, the suffering of their civilians under the triggered Western retaliation strikes brings them waves of sympathy after according media reporting.
Considering this strategy, it was predictable that the negotiations with the Teheran regime would not lead to satisfactory results. This situation leaves two options:
The first one is an immediate regime change. This is what most Iranians want – see largely non-violent 9-Point plan here: https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/nine-point-plan-reestablish-democracy-iran-restoration-sovereignty-iranian-people (the blog article below this one)
As the people’s freedom loving attitude constitutes a most valuable treasure, it has to be sensitively preserved. Thus, the upmost rule in any liberation procedure has to be not to harm civilians nor their property. The destruction of infrastructure and housing would be highly counterproductive. Drawing the respective lessons from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is essential – as well as from the likewise mismanaged Gaza war.
Accordingly, the Netanyahu government has to stop immediately applying its suicidal Dahiya Doctrine against the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The second option in the present situation of unsatisfactory negotiations is to retreat from the Gulf region after only having achieved a poor deal. There are three reasons for this option. First, even any better deal with the evil regime would not at all guarantee a sustainable coexistence in the region, nor bring halt to the international expansion of Islamism and terrorism.
The second reason is the growing internal opposition the Teheran leaders are facing. Having suffered brutal oppression since the fraudulent takeover by the theocratic regime in 1979, the Iranian population is finally fed up with Islamism and striving for a genuine democracy.
This means that a similar liberation plan can be applied more safely in the future, after patient, peaceful, and steady preparation for its implementation over the coming months or years. A corresponding program can be found below these considerations.
A third argument for a patient long-term solution is that the Trump administration did not yet sufficiently draw the lessons from the large row of unfruitfully protracted and in their results suicidal wars from Vietnam to Afghanistan: Before using the US military and secret service ever again in such huge engagement, this unreliable state within the state has to be purged and brought under effective democratic control. This applies in particular to the counterproductive influence of the MIC.
THE LONG-TERM PSYCHOLOGICAL PROGRAM
1. The Narrative: The 1979 Sovereignty Fraud
To undermine the theocracy progressively, exhibiting its foundational myth as fraudulent and illegitimate is essential. The regime claims its authority from the 1979 revolution, framing it as a holy, popular uprising. The correct counter-narrative must truthfully reframe 1979 not as a holy event, but as a sophisticated constitutional bait-and-switch.
- The Original Sin: Remind the public and the lower-ranking military that the millions who marched in 1979 were promised a free, pluralistic republic. Khomeini explicitly stated from Paris that clerics would not govern and would return to the seminaries of Qom.
1.2 The Pseudo-Constitutional Coup: It has to be highlighted how the radical clerical elite systematically outmaneuvered the secular and nationalist revolutionaries, rewriting the draft constitution to inject Velayat-e Faqih (the Supreme Leader's absolute veto power).
- The Framing: The movement is not "overthrowing the state"; it is enforcing the original, unfulfilled promise of Iranian sovereignty against an occupying ideological elite. A historical detour is being corrected.
2. The Media Lever: The "BBC Pivot" and Historical Redress
Before and during Khomeini’s 1979 overtake, the BBC Persian service inadvertently acted as his megaphone by broadcasting his speeches and daily schedules verbatim, lending him immense unearned legitimacy.
- The Moral Leverage: A coordinated diplomatic and public relations campaign by Iranian diaspora organizations and Western governments shall pressure the BBC to run deep, historical retrospectives on the 1979 transition. Other public broadcasters like Voice of America and Deutsche Welle can be asked to join.
- The Content Shift: This is not about broadcasting overt counter-propaganda (which lowers credibility). It is about relentless, objective exposure.
3. Avoiding the "Cornered Rat" Trap
To prevent the regime from unifying in a desperate bid for survival, the plan must keep the Golden Bridge open until the very last moment. The architecture of the exit must be visible, credible, and consistently messaged over months and years.
- Depoliticizing the Professional Soldier: The long-term narrative must constantly repeat: The professional military is separate from the ideological elite. The target of accountability is a very small circle of top-tier human rights abusers and corrupt oligarchs.
- The De-Escalation Ladder: Mid-level officers must know that their smooth transition is guaranteed. This must be clear years before the liberation.
- Plannable transition: The same guarantee applies to jobs and pensions within the civil service. This way, the transition will not appear as a frightening, chaotic purge, but rather as an inevitable, professional reorganization in which the lower and middle levels of the state apparatus simply redirect their loyalty back to the nation and its state.