The American government is at a dead end in the Iran war. This would be different if the correct lessons had finally been learned from the grave mistakes of military interventions from Vietnam to Afghanistan. These mistakes had nothing to do with a lack of military strength; rather, they stemmed from a failure on a psychological level.
More precisely, it was a misguided approach to the local population, including their political leaders. These people perceived the American military not as liberators, but as hostile conquerors. In this environment, resistance grew and terrorist militias emerged during the nearly nine years of the Iraq War. Democracy and the rule of law, on the other hand, failed because corrupt opportunists were given access to positions that require genuine, committed idealists.
This inability of their opponents to learn, violent Islamists have used to transform their rivalry with the democratic West into an irresponsible game of ping-pong:
Their strategy includes provoking military interventions by the US and Israel – with terrorist attacks, rocket fire, or even a massacre like the one on October 7, 2023. The subsequent hard counterattacks inflict suffering on their civilians, which, after media coverage, garners widespread sympathy – absurdly, not only on these victims, but also on themselves, the irresponsible peacebreakers at the beginning of the chain of violence. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/11/hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-depicts-palestinian-casualties-as-necessary-sacrifices/ In this way, they are making alarmingly successful progress on their path of radicalization and resistance against reforms within Islam.
The Iran war, launched prematurely and poorly prepared by Netanyahu and Trump, threatens to fail due to the same fundamental errors as previous interventions – errors that give advantages of global proportions to their supposedly defeated adversaries. To successfully end the war requires recognizing...
1. that violent Islamists like the theocratic regime in Tehran want war as long as they can blame the West,
2. that their negotiators are therefore under no pressure to reach an agreement, while Trump is under considerable pressure (oil prices, the dollar as the world's reserve currency at risk),
3. that destroying infrastructure (such as threatened bridges and power plants) would drive the currently overwhelmingly regime-critical Iranians into the arms of their oppressors (rally-around-the-flag),
4. that the war can therefore only be safely ended by replacing the theocratic regime,
5. that a democratic self-liberation of the Iranians would have occurred long ago if the regime had not so skillfully entrenched its dictatorship in a power triangle consisting of the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts, and the Guardian Council, to which reform forces have no access,
6. that now is the historically correct time for external forces to prepare for providing organizational assistance in replacing the regime, while the presence of the military can ensure the protection of civilians.
Unlike in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has best possible conditions for replacing the autocratic regime with a democratic order. After decades of oppression, 70 to 80% of the population is in opposition, and many are demonstrating – but for how much longer if the regime retains a free hand to have people shot?
The US (together with Great Britain) played a key role in the regime changes of 1953 and 1979 – largely through non-lethal means. What then happened to the detriment of the traditionally freedom-loving Iranians in both cases is now all the more possible - this time to their advantage and, in accordance with their right to self-determination as a nation. The following action plan comes from https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/authentical-liberation-iranian-nation. It has been reviewed for its feasibility in dialogue with AI (Grok on X).
1. Removal: The United States, Israel, and allies declare that the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts, and the Guardian Council have lost their legitimacy. Each member is offered a clear, time-limited way out: voluntary house arrest with protected status and free departure for those who publicly renounce violence and resign within a few days. Anyone who refuses and continues to issue orders will be ostracized by an international declaration—without recourse, with assets frozen worldwide and travel bans imposed. This mirrors successful pressure tactics used in past transitions of power and leads to the immediate paralysis of the leadership without attacking civilian areas.
2. Protection through a coordinated “Air Defense Strategy of Freedom”: Any regime security forces (Basi, internal units of the Revolutionary Guard) attempting to massacre demonstrators will be targeted with precise, real-time airstrikes. Conversely, population centers, power grids, and civilian infrastructure will be protected. This strengthens the Iranian people’s right to peaceful assembly and accelerates the achievement of the 3.5% participation threshold, which is known to make nonviolent movements unstoppable. At the same time, Iran is being provided with secure means of communication (satellite internet, encrypted apps, VPNs) and Persian-language broadcasts that unequivocally proclaim: “We stand with the Iranian people against the regime that oppresses you.”
3. Supporting parallel institutions and defectors: The formation of a National Reconciliation Council (including various opposition movements such as women’s rights activists, trade union leaders, reformers, and representatives of civil society) is being promoted and financially supported. This transitional body can call new elections and coordinate peaceful strikes, boycotts, and neighborhood committees—proven methods from the nonviolent phases of the 1979 Iranian uprising and the Velvet Revolutions in Eastern Europe.
4. Guiding cooperating individuals: Politicians, army commanders, and mid-level police officers should be given a choice: registration and retention of their rank and protection, or personal sanctions and isolation.
5. Selective Sanctions: Secondary sanctions should be maintained and intensified exclusively against regime-controlled entities, elite offshore accounts, and regime oil revenues. Simultaneously, transparent humanitarian channels should be established to bypass regime intermediaries. Diplomatic channels to the theocratic leadership should be closed, and any emerging republican or transitional government that guarantees free elections should be recognized. This weakens the repressive apparatus without harming the overall economy or the Iranian population.
The program was tested for practical applicability by AI (Grok on X). Unlike the destruction of civilian facilities, it is also suitable for exerting pressure during negotiations through mere threats.